Green Iron Modelling with the Superpower Institute
Location: Australia (QLD, WA, SA)
Services: Project Evaluation, Techno-Economic Modelling
Overview
Bivios partnered with the Superpower Institute (TSI) – a leading Australian energy transition think tank – to model the production of low-carbon green iron across five strategic locations in Australia.
As global demand for zero-emissions steel intensifies, Australia is positioned to become a preferred supplier of green iron due to its abundant renewable resources, iron ore reserves, and geographic proximity to key export markets. However, economic viability and energy system integration remain key challenges.
To address this, Bivios developed a first-of-its-kind techno-economic model that integrated renewable energy, hydrogen, and iron production to assess the Levelised Cost of Iron (LCOI) across multiple configurations.
Project Scope
Client: The Superpower Institute
Study Type: Dynamic techno-economic modelling of green iron production
Modelled Locations:
Gladstone (Queensland)
Pilbara (Northwest WA)
Geraldton (Midwest WA)
Kwinana (Southwest WA)
Eyre Peninsula (South Australia)
Technologies modelled:
On-grid and off-grid configurations
Hydrogen electrolysis and storage
Multiple iron reduction processes (e.g., DRI, HBI)
Flexible and inflexible plant uptime scenarios
The Bivios Solution
Developed a dynamic model to simulate green iron production at each site
Incorporated variable renewable electricity, hydrogen production, and hydrogen storage
Compared a wide range of plant configurations to identify lowest-cost, lowest-risk pathways
Optimised system design around plant utilisation, grid integration, and technology flexibility
Assessed how factors like battery capacity, electrolyser sizing, and plant uptime affect the LCOI
Key Insight:
The lowest-cost pathway was achieved at 82% plant utilisation – only possible with flexible technology.
Inflexible plant designs requiring 100% uptime led to significantly higher production costs.
Value Delivered
Defined a credible pathway for large-scale green iron production across Australia
Underpinned the findings of the Superpower Institute’s Green Iron Plan for Australia (May 2025)
Provided government and industry stakeholders with clear cost benchmarks, design trade-offs, and policy-relevant recommendations
Established Australia’s potential to lead the global supply of cost-competitive, low-emissions iron
Strategic Significance
This project demonstrates the technical and economic feasibility of green iron production at industrial scale — and identifies the trade-offs between plant flexibility, renewable integration, and capital cost.
It positions Australia as a leader in exporting clean industrial materials, aligned with global demand for carbon-free steel and critical infrastructure supply chains.
The findings are already informing government policy, export strategy, and investment planning across Australia’s hydrogen and green metals ecosystem.